Description

This analysis provides a forecast of AR prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-05-11 4.683807 5.547171 6.503291 7.637586 8.943314 10.395942 12.130896
2025-05-18 3.166971 4.261209 5.610239 7.381528 9.630051 12.371859 15.948648
2025-05-25 2.212003 3.332362 4.849040 7.019978 10.009015 13.935465 19.429948
2025-06-01 1.676756 2.789904 4.424129 6.941185 10.648999 15.824775 23.487233
2025-06-08 1.305084 2.377823 4.072230 6.856951 11.207424 17.604693 27.537175
2025-06-15 1.123894 2.214776 4.048903 7.232250 12.453555 20.464876 33.390975
2025-06-22 0.928680 1.977100 3.850461 7.276830 13.162127 22.559271 38.272088
2025-06-29 0.770186 1.766237 3.652189 7.275567 13.771340 24.529302 43.110526
2025-07-06 0.641287 1.580685 3.461137 7.246482 14.310212 26.412187 47.947914
2025-07-13 0.602460 1.573787 3.606348 7.851173 16.024079 30.398505 56.571340
2025-07-20 0.535207 1.487448 3.575732 8.108039 17.122215 33.410030 63.770345
2025-07-27 0.482460 1.422188 3.576122 8.421769 18.352568 36.746660 71.774276
2025-08-03 0.410902 1.295658 3.427701 8.421136 19.001691 39.142131 78.405391
2025-08-10 0.332986 1.131092 3.162482 8.131705 19.043233 40.424773 83.151116
2025-08-17 0.264001 0.969718 2.870994 7.734294 18.807197 41.148091 86.910002
2025-08-24 0.221898 0.874673 2.724771 7.647230 19.215089 43.152873 93.241850
2025-08-31 0.186651 0.789591 2.586393 7.555033 19.595569 45.126692 99.651874
2025-09-07 0.174048 0.777386 2.645431 7.963640 21.151098 49.626436 111.366229
2025-09-14 0.151539 0.722037 2.569778 8.012123 21.872194 52.433038 119.855476
2025-09-21 0.130893 0.666227 2.480833 8.010728 22.472057 55.024936 128.079101
2025-09-28 0.112533 0.612489 2.386493 7.979053 22.992276 57.480803 136.181744
2025-10-05 0.111240 0.631217 2.529015 8.637199 25.297759 64.043797 153.354559
2025-10-12 0.102028 0.611459 2.540207 8.916621 26.668415 68.606904 166.526222